Economic History

Practical class #1

Ricardo Gouveia-Mendes
rgouveiamendes@ucp.pt
Undergraduate in Economics
1st Semester 2023-24

Quizz

Question 1

In all low-income countries across the world today, how many girls finish primary school?

a) 25%

b) 45%

c) 65%

d) 85%

c) 60%

Question 2

Where does the majority of the world population live?

a) Low-income countries

b) Middle-income countries

c) High-income countries

b) Middle-income countries

Classification based on 1998’s GNI per capita by World Bank:

• Low-income countries: ≤$1.025
• Middle-income countries: >$1.025 and ≤$12.375
• High-income countries: >$12.375

Low-income countries - 31 countries - 0.7 billion people

Middle-income countries - 107 countries - 5.6 billion people

High-income countries - 80 countries - 1.2 billion people

Question 3

In the last 20 years, the proportion of the world population living in extreme poverty has…

a) Almost doubled

b) Almost halved

c) Remained constant

d) Slightly increased

b) Almost halved

• Extreme poverty by the World Bank: to live with less than $1.9/day (2011 PPP).
• 🤔 Is this a fair definition?

Even with this objective criterion the exact level of extreme poverty is very difficult to measure. However, the trend direction is not uncertain. We can trust that extreme poverty has fallen to at least half, if not one-third: from around 30 percent in 1999 to around 10 percent in 2015.

Question 4

What is the life expectancy of the world today?

a) 50 years

b) 60 years

c) 70 years

d) 40 years

c) 70 years

Question 5

How many children, aged 0 to 15 years old, will there be in the year 2100?
(today: 2 billion)

a) 4 billion

b) 3 billion

c) 2 billion

d) 3.5 billion

c) 2 billion

Question 6

What is the main reason for UN forecast of an increase of 3 billion in the world population by 2100?

a) More children (aged <15)

b) More elder (aged >75)

c) More adults (aged 15 to 74)

d) All the mentioned options

c) More adults (aged 15 to 74)

Question 7

How did the number of deaths per year from natural disasters change over the last hundred years?

a) More than doubled

b) Remained the same

c) Slightly decreased

d) Decreased to less than a half

d) Decreased to less than a half
Source: International Disaster Database

A couple of cautions:

• These are long term averages
• Is the absolute number informative?
• Under reporting for ancient periods

• Long term averages hide strong variability
• Absolute number means nothing. Better deaths per capita, since population has varied between periods
• People today have 75% less chance of being killed by a natural disaster than their grand-parents or great grand-parents.

Question 8

There are roughly 8 billion people in the world today. What is the share of people living in Asia and Australia?

a) >50%

b) 30%

c) <30%

d) between 30% and 50%

a) >50%

World population:

• Americas 1.1 billion
• Europe 0.8 billion
• Africa 1.4 Billion
• Australia and Asia 4.8 billion

Question 9

How many of the world’s 1-year-old children today have been vaccinated against some disease?

a) 20%

b) 40%

c) 60%

d) 80%

d) 80%

According to WHO in 2016: 88%.

• BCG (Tuberculosis): 88%
• DTP3 (Diphtheria, Tetanus t. and pertussis): 86%
• MCV1 (Measles, 1st dose): 85%
• Pol3 (Polio): 85%
• HepB3 (Hepatitis B): 84%
• PAB (Neonatal tetanus): 84%

Question 10

How many years, on average, have women of 30-year-old age spent in school?

a) 6 years, 1 less than men aged equal

b) 9 years, 1 less than men aged equal

c) 6 years, 3 less than men aged equal

d) 9 years, 3 less than men aged equal

b) 9 years, 1 less than men aged equal
Source: Health Data

Estimates of Barro and Lee (2013):

• Women have an average of 8.79 years of schooling
• Men 9.32 years

• Health Data estimates: 188 countries
• Barro and Lee (2013) estimates: 146 countries in 2010 for individuals aged 25 to 29 As always, there is uncertainty in these kinds of estimates, but there is no reason to assume that the difference between genders is nearly as large as what people think.

Question 11

Are tigers, giant pandas, and black rhinos more endangered today than in 1996?

a) Just black rhinos

b) Just black rhinos and giant pandas

c) The 3 species are more endangered today than in 1996

d) The 3 species are endangered the same as in 1996

d) The 3 species are endangered the same as in 1996
Source: IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature)

Question 12

How many people in the world don’t have access to electricity?

a) 20%

b) 40%

c) 60%

d) 80%

a) 20%
Source: the World Bank and the International Energy Agency

But… 🤔 What is access?

Households may experience an average of 60 power outages per week and still be listed as “having access to electricity.”

Question 13

Global climate experts believe that, over the next 100 years, the average temperature will…

a) get colder

b) get warmer

c) remain the same

d) remain the same, but with an inverted-V evolution

b) get warmer

• But… 🤔 who are the «climate experts»?
• The 274 authors of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), published in 2014

Surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all assessed emission scenarios. It is very likely that heat waves will occur more often and last longer, and that extreme precipitation events will become more intense and frequent in many regions. The ocean will continue to warm and acidify, and global mean sea level to rise.

Question 14

Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS) shows that the cumulative burnt areas in 2023 compared with the average of 2012-2022 is…

a) lower

b) higher

c) the same

a) lower
Source: GWIS and Bjorn Lomborg

1.5 million hectares below

Question 15

What is the average monthly wage of an employee in Portugal?

a) 970 €

b) 630 €

c) 1.290 €

d) 2.180 €

c) 1.294,10 €
Source: Pordata (2020)

Question 16

Portugal’s GDP per capita in 2021 is ~24.275 $. This was roughly the value of the US in…

a) 1971

b) 1981

c) 1991

d) 2001

c) 1991

Wrap-up conclusions

Some take-aways

• Data is very important: prejudices or ideological visions may poison your conclusions
• Discuss your sources: reliability, methodology
• Be aware of how partial your analysis can be

Unavoidable bias

• The questions you make will focus your attention

• Select measures with caution
• Is my data big enough, robust enough to support the extension of the conclusions I am making?

Next chapters

Introducing the Hockey Stick

Ask Why?

• Some countries have 100x higher income per capita
• Some countries more than doubled life expectancy
• Positive correlation between growth and lifespan
• Industrial revolution is a key event on economic growth
• Inequality is a topic of great importance today